Decline in fentanyl overdoses causes experts to ask if crisis is in new phase
Have the number of overdose deaths peaked? That’s a question National Public Radio asked in a story this month, based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and an analysis by the Opioid Data Lab at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.
According to the CDC’s data, overdose deaths are down in all 50 states and Washington, D.C., which is the culmination of a trend first noticed last summer on the coasts. The downward trend does not appear to be abating, and it is possible some states will see the fewest overdose deaths they have seen in several years.
“We are on track to return to levels of [fatal] overdose before fentanyl emerged,” Nabarun Dasgupta, the leader of the Opioid Data Lab, told NPR.
Colorado overdose deaths drop 13.9 percent; fentanyl deaths down 28.5 percent
The CDC’s most recent data from Colorado continues to get better. The CDC collects and reports data in 12-month periods on a rolling basis, with the latest reporting period covering October 2023 to October 2024. It found a 13.9 percent decrease in the number of drug overdose deaths reported in Colorado when comparing the latest period to the prior year. The deaths caused by synthetic opioids such as fentanyl dropped 28.5 percent, from 1,192 deaths to 852 deaths.
Dasgupta’s team also looked at historic data, and they believe Colorado and the nation are past the overdose epidemic’s peak. They analysis they provided NPR calculated that overdoses in Colorado reached the maximum in January 2024, when the CDC had reported that 2,017 people had died in the prior 12 months. It’s worthwhile to read the Opioid Data Lab’s post, but it does get technical.
NPR’s story goes into more detail about how the Opioid Data Lab calculated the data, and the reporter posted a companion piece looking at eight different explanations for why, in his words, “fentanyl deaths are plummeting.” Theories include greater access to naloxone, changes in how people use fentanyl, and changes in the drug supply. While there is not a consensus explanation, there is agreement on one thing.
“We’ve already seen the biggest, fastest drop in U.S. history. So far, there’s no sign the improvement is slowing,” the reporter wrote. NPR’s stories are good overviews, and the Opioid Data Lab has posted a very detailed explanation on its website.
“It has been a complete shock to see the numbers declining in the way they have been,” Dasgupta said, while also calling for continuing vigilance and work.
Work needs to continue
Other local news shows it is too early to celebrate.
The Denver Department of Public Health and Environment published a web post saying it has seen an increase in nonfatal overdoses. Meanwhile, the Denver Office of the Medical Examiner is investigating several deaths that are suspected to be overdoses, although the toxicology results are pending. According to the Denver Post, there were 14 “outdoor deaths” through March 24, some of which were likely caused by overdoses.
Also, the drop in overdose deaths is not universal, with higher rates being reported among minority communities. This study from Johns Hopkins examined the data and found that “young minorities bore the brunt of [the overdose] crisis.”
We plan to take a closer look at local data and at the disparity in the coming months, and we have created a new page collecting important data on our website, so check it out. Clearly, it’s not the time to let up.